This week, Natasha Korecki at NBC News took on one of the biggest questions hanging over the future of the Democratic Party: Who will take over Bernie Sanders’ massive grassroots movement?

This question is particularly weighty when you consider the reality that 30+ Dems will run for president in 2028, and the early frontrunners are disproportionately stacked up in an overcrowded moderate white guy lane: GAVIN NEWSOM, JOSH SHAPIRO, PETE BUTTIGIEG, MARK KELLY, ANDY BESHEAR, etc… I call them The Steves. Sure, none of them are actually named Steve, but they all seem like they should be.

KAMALA HARRIS may or may not run, and perhaps she codes as slightly left of The Steves, but she is no heir to the Bernie movement. Nor are WES MOORE or ELISSA SLOTKIN or RUBEN GALLEGO or CORY BOOKER or ok you get the picture.

This is part of why (along with her superior talent, charisma, attention capital, etc.) I’ve always felt ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ has the clearest 2028 path; if she could consolidate support from the left, winning even 25-30% of the base as The Steves+ split the rest of the electorate 1000 ways, that may be enough to capture the nomination. And I still feel that way, despite mounting challenges to overcome.

Korecki’s excellent reporting makes clear that AOC has not locked up support from Bernieworld, adding new details to the very real inroads that RO KHANNA has made there. She also rightly namechecks JON OSSOFF, JB PRITZKER, CHRIS MURPHY & CHRIS HOLLEN as other Dems drawing interest from these corners.

So which of these suitors will win the race to inherit the Bernie movement? Probably none of them – at least not in its totality – for three reasons:

  1. Bernie’s political coalition is unique to Bernie. Bernie’s appeal is not just his leftism. He is seen as uniquely authentic, principled, consistent, and willing to take on the powers that be – from his own party’s leaders to corporate giants and the mainstream media. Moreover, in his tunnel-visioned class fight, he has mostly eschewed identity politics. All of this has helped him build a broad and personally devoted coalition; it is not simply “the left” and may not be easily transferable to a successor, even with Bernie’s blessing.

  2. The left is a victim of its own success. Whether you like it or not, Bernie & co. have won a lot of arguments in recent years, and the party has moved decidedly in their direction. Hell, RAHM EMANUEL is out here demanding not one more dime for the IDF. Everyone is an economic populist. Abolishing ICE, Medicare For All, a $25 minimum wage – they’re all kinda mainstream Dem positions now. Makes it hard to run the Bernie playbook and stand out from the crowd.

  3. An insider can’t duplicate the Bernie playbook. Bernie’s outsideriness and open hostility toward the Dem establishment is an essential aspect of his appeal – and it’ll be an even greater imperative for inheriting the movement if half the field is running on his agenda and rhetoric. AOC’s rise to stardom has the same roots, but she’s been playing a careful insider game for the past 8 years, disillusioning plenty of leftists along the way. Everyone else discussed in the NBC piece is, on the whole, even more establishment-friendly.

One thing I’m nearly certain of is, if Zohran Mamdani were born in America, he’d be the current favorite to win the nomination – which is both an insane thing to say about a 34-year-old Muslim socialist who nobody heard of until like five seconds ago, and also, seems self-evident. 

Alas, he was born in Uganda. But he does offer a presidential blueprint for the insurgent left – including his deft de-emphasizing of divisive social issues he’d previously leaned in on, without throwing marginalized groups under the bus. 

I think true outsiders like UAW President SHAWN FAIN and The Daily Show’s JON STEWART need to be firmly in this conversation. I also suspect others who are not on anybody’s radar yet will end up making waves in this space. And all that being said, to the extent that anyone can pick up the Bernie mantle, it remains AOC’s for the taking – if she returns to her more revolutionary roots.

  • Recommended reading: This piece by left-wing electoral analyst Joshua Cohen (aka Ettingermentum) is easily the most thorough and insightful analysis I’ve read about AOC, the left, and the 2028 question.

  • WATCH: I talked about this question and much more on Trailblaze 2028 with Jamal Simmons & Matt Butler.

Quick Hits

  • Natasha Korecki also scooped that JB PRITZKER would not fully self-finance a 2028 run. The billionaire governor has spent over $300M of his own money on previous campaigns, but for a presidential bid – in addition to cost, image, and listbuilding considerations – grassroots donations will likely be part of the criteria for making the presidential debate stage.

    • PRITZKER will keynote the opening luncheon at the Texas Dems’ state convention on June 26, where CORY BOOKER is also a keynote. Plus, he earned a glowing profile by TIME Magazine’s Julia Terruso, and hit Chicago’s iconic Manny’s Deli for a must-watch episode of On the Road with Jonathan Martin (among other things, JMart asked him if a “fat Jewish billionaire” can really get elected president… incredible.)

  • JOSH SHAPIRO acolyte and PA-07 hopeful Bob Brooks told a crowd that Shapiro had asked his union to back the GOP nominee for treasurer in 2024 to punish Dem nominee Erin McClelland for criticizing him, per Axios. Both Brooks & the Shapiro camp now contend he misspoke & this never happened… If you’re not persuaded by that explanation, well, neither are Brooks’ primary opponents, and Erin McClelland, even less so!

  • JOSH SHAPIRO’s admin also sued Character.AI over its chatbots falsely presenting itself as a licensed medical professional. And he continues to generate big sports moments, following up April’s NFL Draft in Pittsburgh with appearances on both Kylie Kelce’s podcast & the Flyers jumbotron, where he fired up the crowd with potential running mate, Gritty.

  • KAMALA HARRIS is heading to Vegas on Thursday to fundraise for NV-Gov candidate Aaron Ford. She also endorsed a slate of CA candidates – including LA Mayor Karen Bass, who is now an underdog against progressive Nithya Raman – while declining to wade into the fraught CA-Gov race.

    • HARRIS & WES MOORE (with First Lady Dawn Moore) both spoke at the ExcelerateHer summit in Miami, a premier convening of Black women leaders across industries.

  • AOC endorsed smokejumper Sam Forstag in the contested MT-01 primary, where Dems hope to flip the open seat held by outgoing Rep. Ryan Zinke.

  • RO KHANNA is embarking on a 3-day “heartland tour” Thursday across PA, OH, & MI, where he’ll engage with working people about his economic vision.

  • PETE BUTTIGIEG endorsed the Montana Plan – a ballot initiative to get corporate money out of politics that takes a novel legal approach to circumvent Citizens United – and will hold a town hall in Butte, MT on May 17. He also swung through Raleigh last week to raise money for NC Dems.

  • RUBEN GALLEGO spoke to Semafor’s Dave Weigel for a piece on his forward-leaning approach to addressing concerns over his ex-friendship Eric Swalwell, and rumors about his own behavior.

  • JON OSSOFF released a 4-minute campaign video that may be the best construction of the anti-corruption narrative I’ve seen from any Democrat.

  • MARK KELLY & Gabby Giffords appeared on Shan On The Street – with popular creator / NYC street interviewer Shan Rizwan – and were quizzed on their U2 knowledge. (Gabby correctly named, and sang, all three songs.)

  • ELISSA SLOTKIN’s tour of middle America will continue when she headlines IN Dems’ Hoosier Hospitality Dinner on June 5, Politico’s Adam Wren scooped. She also introduced a bill with Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) to ban Chinese automobiles, parts, & vehicle software from the US market ahead of Trump’s planned summit with Xi Jinping this month.

  • ANDY BESHEAR will keynote the NH Dems’ convention on May 16, before heading back to SC later this month, where he & fellow early-state-grinder RO KHANNA will join Jim Clyburn’s famous fish fry and headline other official SCDP Dem Weekend events.

  • CHRIS MURPHY campaigned for MI-Sen candidate Mallory McMorrow in Royal Oak, and endorsed Bobby Pulido in TX-15 and Bob Brooks in PA-07.

  • RAHM EMANUEL announced a 3-day, 110 mile bike tour of NH in June.

  • WES MOORE formally launched his reelection bid.

Highlights from the Big, Beautiful Tracker

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