On Thursday, the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee – the powerful panel that will determine the 2028 early state primary lineup later this summer – voted to stiffen penalties for those who defy their forthcoming calendar.
Under the newly approved rules, any state holding an unsanctioned early contest will be stripped of all delegates and fined $270,000. Moreover, any candidate who campaigns in those states would be barred from official debates, and from earning delegates in any early window contest.
It’s a shot across the bow at the Iowa Democrats, who have threatened to reclaim their state’s chronological primacy for the upcoming nominating cycle even if the DNC leaves them off the early slate, which seems their likely fate.
The committee debated giving themselves an escape hatch, but ultimately decided it was more important to send a message that they are super serious about enforcement, for real this time.
In 2024 – after the DNC heeded Joe Biden’s demands to place SC & NV at the front of the calendar – IA played nice, accepting their demotion to Super Tuesday, while NH went rogue and held their traditional first-in-the-nation (FITN) primary. The NH Dems ended up paying no price for their defiance; indeed, they may well be rewarded with official FITN status in 2028.
But if Iowa – or any other state – wants to gamble that the committee will cave again, the new sanctions mean they’d be taking a massive risk. Moreover, candidates daring to compete there would be engaging in political seppuku.
It’s just one of many flashpoints looming for an anemic and trust-poor DNC as it seeks to corral a menagerie of attention-hungry 2028ers running against the establishment.
Indeed, NOTUS reports that at least three potential candidates are already talking about skipping the official party-blessed debates, while a hodgepodge of progressive influencers and interest groups are angling to host their own presidential fora.
Buckle up, friends – it’s gonna be terrible.
War of Wealthy Californians
GAVIN NEWSOM called for a “national billionaires’ tax,” as well as an end to the “tax-free lifestyle loan,” a rewrite of inheritance rules, and a return to pre-2017 corporate tax rates. He debuted the new framework hours after failing to kill a controversial one-time, 5% wealth tax ballot initiative designed to offset Trump’s Medicaid cuts – a political headache I’ve been warning about since last year.
Fellow Californian & future prez candidate RO KHANNA – who has endorsed the CA wealth tax – was not impressed by his governor’s proposal. In a virtual presser, he trashed Newsom as “a cheerleader for the billionaire class” and the new policy as empty “propaganda” belied by his actions: “You can’t hypothetically say I support policies on a national level while ducking the fight in your own state,” Khanna said.
But the substance here matters, and Ro is frankly waving away a bunch of key context in service of his attack, such as:
A wealth tax really does need to be done nationally; at the state level, it merely pushes the wealthy to move money to FL or TX, which is already happening.
The CA budget relies heavily on progressive taxation of these now-fleeing rich.
The structure of this tax – a one-time cash infusion required to go to healthcare (90%) & education (10%) – is restrictive, and offers no durable revenue stream.
For these reasons, a ton of key progressive players in CA oppose it, including top teachers’ & doctors’ unions, Planned Parenthood, & every Dem who ran for governor except Tom Steyer.
Finally, while Newsom has indeed fended off many efforts to soak the rich in CA – safe to say the gladhanding megamillionaire winery owner is not gonna win a populism-off in 2028 – he has also been warning all year that surging economic inequality poses an existential threat to democracy. He’s fighting to kill this wealth tax despite recognizing that the politics are awful for him because he believes it would harm his state. Which, contra his reputation, is actually kinda the opposite of craven.
Quick Hits
WES MOORE will deliver a speech on patriotism from Annapolis on July 4th, arguing Dems shouldn’t cede the issue to MAGA while drawing out the distinction between patriotism & nationalism.
MOORE is fresh off a trip to Detroit, where he campaigned for MI-Gov candidate Jocelyn Benson (and declined to say if he’d run in 2028).
In the latest edition of Axios 2028, Holly Otterbein spotlighted tensions between Moore and local unions, getting several labor leaders on the record.
ELISSA SLOTKIN told Stephen A. Smith that the Democrats need new leadership in both the House and the Senate. The Congressional Black Caucus quickly fired back at Slotkin in defense of Hakeem Jeffries. I’m sure she wasn’t hoping to spar with the CBC in particular, but I think her willingness to take on the powers that be may pay dividends in the long run.
ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ has played an intraparty peacemaker role around the DSA’s recent wins, recounting both the gratuitous Dem hostility and rapid education she received upon her own arrival in DC. After a media-shy 2025 – and a few shaky moments as she knocked off the rust in early 2026 – she’s really found her footing, and was impressive in extended interviews on The Briefing with Jen Psaki and Keep Hope Alive with Santita Jackson this week, along with gaggles on the Hill.
AOC also submitted 11 amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including a cleverly-crafted measure that could effectively halt all US military aid to Israel by strengthening requirements that recipient countries are complying with international law and not impeding the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
PETE BUTTIGIEG was targeted by a heinous ‘swatting’ hoax – a false report of child abuse that led to police & CPS showing up to his house, telling him he couldn’t be alone with his own kids until further notice, and subjecting his twin 4-year-olds to one-on-one forensic interviews. He substacked about the traumatic experience.
JON OSSOFF fever rages on, as chronicled CNN’s Isaac Dovere in his latest dispatch. The piece makes clear not only that Ossoff remains a ‘no’ for 2028, but also that he almost didn’t run for reelection this year, distraught by the time away from his two young daughters.
ANDY BESHEAR – who is as close to admitting he’s running as anyone in the field – was profiled by NYT’s Elisabeth Bumiller, with a spotlight on his outreach to Black voters (feat. compliments from both Al Sharpton & Jim Clyburn) and his pro-business, red state pragmatist pitch.
“Mr. Beshear is the Boy Scout in this [2028 field] — disciplined, earnest, eager to please, a little stiff. No one has ever accused him of being exciting. But he projects more energy and passion on the stump than he did even two years ago, and his manners and soft Lexington drawl hide a certain intensity,” Bumiller writes.
RUBEN GALLEGO had the bipartisan Senate Ethics Committee clear him of misconduct after spurious allegations by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) – only to have Axios report hours later that he’s facing a federal campaign finance investigation, with NYT adding new details about his use of campaign cash for family travel.
As with the NEWSOM probe(s) revealed earlier this month, it’s difficult to know what to make of cases emanating from Trump’s weaponized DOJ, which targets his political rivals with a hamfistedness that would make the White House Plumbers blush. (Just ask JD Vance.) Gallego, like Newsom, is punching back on these grounds.
Project 2029, which hopes to shape Dems’ forward-looking agenda, rolled out a sweeping ‘Kids Over Clicks’ online safety framework as its first major policy blueprint – an indication of the political salience of taking on Big Tech. CORY BOOKER is among the plan’s prominent backers.
JOSH SHAPIRO chatted with Jonathan Haidt – author of The Anxious Generation and another endorser of the Kids Over Clicks plan – about PA’s lawsuit against Character.AI, among other relevant topics.
KAMALA HARRIS called Zohran Mamdani after last Tuesday’s primaries, and has been holding “lengthy, closed-door meetings” with pro-Palestine activists in recent days, Axios’s Holly Otterbein & Alex Thompson scooped.
MARK KELLY will headline Ohio Dems’ annual “Ohio on the Rise” dinner on August 1.
Highlights from the Big, Beautiful Tracker
ELISSA SLOTKIN on Straight Shooter with Stephen A
CHRIS MURPHY on Talking Feds with Harry Litman and Fast Politics with Molly Jong-Fast
RO KHANNA on Breaking Points
JOSH SHAPIRO on The Press Box
RAPHAEL WARNOCK on Real Time with Bill Maher
