Sorry for the Monday send this week, but I got an early look at fascinating new data from a top Dem pollster and I wanted to share it with you sickos first!
Earlier this month, Bryan Bennett at Loft Beck Strategies surveyed 1,500 registered voters nationwide + an oversample of 402 self-identified Dems – the kind of sample that allows you to draw meaningful insights about where the base is at.
Beyond some 👀 favorability numbers for 2028ers & Dem leaders, the poll paints a rich picture of how voters – not just Dems, but ‘persuadables’ (Rs & Is who disapprove of Trump), ‘double haters’ (unfavorable view of both parties), & the electorate at-large – view the Democratic Party, and where they want it to go from here.
SPOILER ALERT: Our brand is still pretty toxic – including among many Dem voters, disillusioned by a party they see as well-intentioned, but weak, hollow, out-of-touch, and incapable of getting shit done. Other than that though, we’re doing great.
There are, actually, plenty of silver linings – and valuable lessons, if we choose to learn them. (We probably won’t.)
Perhaps the headline takeaway is this:
Even as Democratic discourse-drivers are consumed by seemingly existential leftist-vs-centrist showdowns, voters care far more about whether leaders will fight for them than they do about ideological alignment.
By a 2-to-1 margin, Dems prefer someone they see as fighting to get things done over someone they agree with on the issues, or someone who seems earnest in their beliefs.
Across the 11 Democrats tested, net favorability had a near-linear correlation with perceived strength, and a negligible correlation with ideological bent.
Favorability of Dem leaders correlates with strength; not ideology. chart: Loft Beck Strategies, Apr 2026
Base-ic Problems
Only 1-in-3 Dems have a very favorable view of the Democratic Party. (46% have a somewhat favorable view, and 1-in-5 have an outright unfavorable view)
Roughly 2-in-5 Dems say the party… lacks a clear vision (38%); is out of touch (42%); lacks strong leadership (42%); and does not get things done (43%). Fully 56% say it does not stand up to Trump effectively. I mean…tough but fair!
Dems are evenly split on whether the party says what it really believes (45%) or adapts to whatever they think voters want to hear (42%).
Other Key Takeaways
Be for things. By 30+ point margins, Dems, persuadables, & double haters all think the Dem Party is more focused on opposing Trump than proposing their own agenda – and each group wants the party to focus more on proposing their own agenda than opposing Trump. Dems feel this way by an 18-point margin.
Not surprising, but Dems want the party to embrace bigger ideas over smaller ones by a 78-point margin.
Smash the status quo. By a 2-to-1 margin, voters think the Dem Party is more focused on going back to the way things were before Trump than on advancing big post-Trump reforms – and Dems, Persuadables, & Double Haters all want the party to focus on big post-Trump reforms by a 30+ point margin.
At least two-thirds of each group view the Dem Party as being mostly political insiders, but all would prefer outsiders – particularly double haters (55-point margin) & persuadables (37-point margin).
Now, Your Most Favorable Part…
It’s been a great six months for MARK KELLY, whose role as Trump foe has helped fuel ungodly fundraising numbers & 2028 buzz, even cracking 10% in two NH polls. Impressively, he has avoided the negative polarization that often accompanies such turns in the Trump inferno. LBS finds KELLY at +8 net favorability. He’s the only Dem with positive net favorability (24%-23%) among persuadables – a group with whom the party is 58 points underwater – and nobody else is even close.
The top of the pack is ideologically diverse, with Bernie Sanders & JOSH SHAPIRO the two other Dems in positive territory overall. JB PRITZKER, WES MOORE, & AOC – who is the 2028er that Dems view most favorably & as the strongest leader – are all also in solid shape, sitting well above the party’s standard-bearers.
Ok, I don’t want to forcefeed you any more numbers, but it’s worth perusing the full LBS dataset in whichever format you find most digestible – there’s a ton of good shit in here: deck… polling memo… toplines… demographic crosstabs… partisan crosstabs.
Follow-ups on the Status Quo
On Friday, I wrote about the electorate’s hunger for a hard break from the status quo, and Dems’ efforts to meet them there – a task which will present more challenges for some than others.
The next day, two things happened that caught my attention in this department.
I.
In a speech at the AR Dems’ Shackleford Fisher Dinner in Little Rock – her first keynote since 2024 – KAMALA HARRIS called out Democrats for buying into the “flawed assumptions behind trickle-down economics]... That if we just trusted the wisdom of the market, working people would eventually get taken care of… That growth at the top would take care of everyone else.”
Later, she argued that Dems must have a bold post-Trump vision to revive the American Dream. (All good, very in line with this polling!) Continuing on the earlier theme, that agenda included writing “a tax code that rewards hard work; not just vast wealth.”
While directionally right, she’ll face the same credibility gap that dogged her in 2024, when she couldn’t escape the burden of representing the unpopular status quo. But on this particular front, it’s arguably worse… One of the few clear breaks from Biden she did make was on capital gains taxes for the wealthy, slashing his proposed top rate by almost 12 points (28% vs. 39.6%). "We know that when the government encourages investment, it leads to broad-based economic growth,” Harris said at the time.
I’m not trying to take gratuitous swipes at Kamala here; I have genuine affection for her, think it’s foolish to dismiss her as a 2028 contender, and found other parts of her crowd-pleasing speech quite compelling – like her call for “a sweeping project of civic renewal.” But I do think “anti-oligarchic disruptor” will be a tough sell for the ex-VP.
II.
WES MOORE has no such status quo problems. In general, being a governor who can actually get shit done while railing against DC’s partisan gamesmanship & gridlock lends you more outsider cred than being in the federal gov’t – but there is still plenty of stratification within the gubernatorial outsideriness ranks.
For example, GRETCHEN WHITMER, JOSH SHAPIRO, & GAVIN NEWSOM have all held elected office for 20+ years. ANDY BESHEAR is the son of a KY Gov. & JB PRITZKER is a Hyatt heir & Dem megadonor who ran for Congress decades ago. WES MOORE’s first foray into politics was when he ran for governor in 2022.
On Real Time with Bill Maher on Saturday, Maher asked Moore whether he was from the Democratic Socialist or classic wing of the party. Here’s how the Gov answered:
“When I ran for governor, the Democratic Party put millions of dollars to try to stop me. It just happened the people of Maryland had a different point of view, and the people of Maryland made me the governor. But no party boss and no party made me the governor. And I like that because…I honestly believe, if you just swallow a party ideology, you're probably not thinking hard enough. And I don't care what party.”
This is hardly the first time Moore has said he’s no party creature, but it’s the most forceful rendition I’ve heard. I very much believe the 2028 nominee will be someone who runs explicitly against the Democratic establishment – and this was an impressive version of that, from one of the few early contenders with the bio to back it up.
Quick Hits
NEWS? I have not seen this reported anywhere, but ANDY BESHEAR is listed as a headliner of the SC Dems’ Blue Palmetto Dinner on May 29. Last year, WES MOORE & TIM WALZ got the nod; Beshear has keynoted a ton of annual Dem events in consequential states of late.
GAVIN NEWSOM was in DC for WHCD weekend, skipping the ill-fated dinner, but making the rounds at the associated events, including DC socialite Tammy Haddad’s famous garden brunch, the Vanity Fair / CAA kickoff, a Voto Latino reception, the UTA party, and he was headed to Substack’s New Media Party during the dinner when things went haywire.
NEWSOM is set to appear on Real Time with Bill Maher on Friday.
RO KHANNA continues to lead the field in swing state hustling… He was in Vegas on Friday for a roundtable with Rep. Steven Horsford & OpenAI’s Chris Lehane, a KTNV interview & more. And he’s headed back to SC next month to speak at the SCDP Convention.
KHANNA also starred in a long-read by New Yorker’s Jon Allsop exploring the merits & risks of Dems leveraging the Epstein case as an animating pillar of their politics.
Axios’s Alex Thompson & Holly Otterbein went hard in last night’s 2028 newsletter, with a 3-part provocation on AOC’s press disengagement, WES MOORE’s Citibank days, & RUBEN GALLEGO’s drinking; safe to say none of their spokespeople seemed pleased by their respective lines of question.
Highlights from the Big, Beautiful Tracker
WES MOORE on Real Time with Bill Maher
RUBEN GALLEGO on America, Actually with Astead Herndon
CHRIS MURPHY on Lovett or Leave It
