Next week, we’ll return to our regularly scheduled programming, but first, I figured I’d permanently incinerate my own credibility by memorializing my pollyannish predictions of a blue tsunami…
Yes, that says 260 House seats.
I am projecting a D+11.5 national electorate, which is certainly optimistic but not outlandish; a bunch of key indicators point in this direction:
Across 100+ special elections in 2025-2026, Dems have outperformed their 2024 margins by an average of 12.5 points.
Democrats had a massive turnout advantage across statewide primaries, which has historically been quite predictive of general election outcomes; the data points to a D+13 margin midterm.
Early vote data (in most states) looks phenomenal for Dems. This will surely be the most diverse midterm electorate ever, driven largely by a huge backlash to Trump policies from Black and Latino voters.
Ds are banking votes from new/infrequent voters, not just cannibalizing their E-Day vote, while Rs will need a huge turnout surge from a deeply disillusioned base. And EV analysis can’t account for crossover votes or Independents, where Dems should make
‘Strong’ disapproval of Trump – a key indicator of midterm performance – is sky-high (like, ~50%) even in states he won by double digits.
It’s the economy, stupid. Dems managed an 8.5-point national edge in the 2018 midterms when Trump’s net economic approval was +11; now it’s 46 points underwater – a 57-point swing.
Lastly, pollsters are terrified of missing “shy Trump voters” again, and are weighting accordingly – more likely overcompensating for past mistakes than repeating them, in my opinion. You know that final NYT/Siena poll that looked overly rosy for Dems? Well, it actually would’ve been far rosier under the methodology they used in prior cycles.
Anyways, if the national popular vote is in the D+11.5 ballpark, a 260-seat majority is totally plausible; there are 60 districts Trump carried by between 10 & 18 points in 2024, and Dems landed strong nominees in most of them.
If it’s more like the D+8 electorate most people expect, we’ll fall just short in most of those stretch targets and land closer to 240. And in that 3.5-point difference lies a lifetime of mockery for ya boy. But alas, such is the life of a hopium-huffing takesman.
On the Senate side, I feel like I’ve already won cuz I’ve been arguing the MS, SC, NE, & KS races were winnable since April, when everyone thought I was insane. I think all 4 will be extremely close (I picked Dems to win 3 of them!), as will FL, and perhaps LA.
Despite the ruby red map, I’d honestly be very surprised if Dems don’t win the majority, and they could plausibly get as high as 59 if everything breaks for them; somewhere in the 53-56 range seems most likely. (Also, if Scott Colom’s Mississippi miracle is spoiled by Ty Pinkins, the ‘24 Dem nominee running as an Indy, I’ll never get over it.)
Without further ado, here are my predicted margins in every competitive Senate, gubernatorial, and House race in the country…
View my full spreadsheet for House picks with candidate names.
By tomorrow, I’ll probably look like an absolute clown for these predictions. But also by tomorrow, 2028 primary season will have begun in earnest… what are you gonna do, unsubscribe now!?
Thanks as always for reading, and if you want to watch me melt down over the results in real-time (and hear analysis from actual experts and smart political operatives), tune into our live election show / watch party tonight – or let me know if you’re in DC and want to come!
