If there’s a prediction market out there for whether Democrats will continue to vilify prediction markets, let’s all insider-trade the YES side together, shall we?
It’s not terribly surprising that the industry finds itself in the crosshairs after dozens of scandals ranging from state secrets being leveraged for war profiteering to degenerate gamblers threatening to kill a reporter if he didn’t change his story.
Beyond the obvious moral hazards, the issue fits neatly into Dems’ burgeoning focus on tackling corruption, with an emphasis on Trump’s unique knack for it. Many Ds have alleged that it’s the president’s own inner circle that is profiting off this steady drumbeat of insider trading and market manipulation. And it’s not a hard sell…
Among other things, Don Jr. is a strategic advisor to the industry’s two biggest players: Kalshi’s CEO announced he’d joined their team a week before inauguration, while Polymarket added him to their board in August. (I feel like a condition of being a Pepsi strategic advisor would be “don’t join Coke’s board” but what do I know!)
Anyways, on Thursday, ELISSA SLOTKIN rolled out bipartisan legislation to prohibit federal officials from using nonpublic information to bet on prediction markets, citing – among other things – the operational risks to our national security.
On Monday, RAHM EMANUEL had proposed banning all federal employees and their families from betting on prediction markets altogether, vertical-videoing his outrage over working class kids “risking their lives while a bunch of nepo babies from Palm Springs and Palm Beach are risking their daddy's little inheritance” betting on the war.
CHRIS MURPHY was arguably the first mover; he announced he was working on legislation way back in… last month. His bill with Rep. Greg Casar would ban bets on gov’t actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. He was on Pablo Torre Finds Out this week to discuss it; beyond the insider trading, he continues to raise alarm over the broader moral rot that comes from the casino-fication of everything.
ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ has been singing the same tune – and was applauded by a bunch of conservative commentators when she quote-tweeted Polymarket announcing a new MLB partnership to say “pervasive gambling is not good for society.” On Wednesday, she floated a ban on advertising for prediction markets, comparing the industry to Big Tobacco.
You get the idea; there’s a lot of activity here from across the political spectrum. And I’d bet good money this trend ain’t ending anytime soon!
Quick Hits
KAMALA HARRIS will headline a series of Southern state Democratic Party fundraisers next month, including in GA, NC, & SC, all of which are vying to hold early presidential primaries. While the prospect of Kamala running it back in 2028 tends to elicit eyerolls from the chattering class (your author sometimes included), her enduring support from Black voters should not be dismissed. The last time a Democrat won the nomination without carrying the Black vote was in 1988. She starts with a huge advantage over the rest of the field on that front, and is doing things to shore it up, should she decide to run.
ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ tore into AI giants for treating “working people as an endless untapped market to be manipulated & exploited” as she unveiled a bill with Bernie Sanders to pause all new data center construction until Congress passes comprehensive legislation to mitigate AI harms. I’ve been desperate for Dems to lean into a populist fight against Silicon Valley, but FWIW, I really do not think a data center moratorium is the best path; it somehow feels unrealistic & uninspiring at the same time. Instead, maybe start by taxing the living fuck out of them to fund transformational new programs that ensure working families – and millions of soon-to-be-displaced workers – can live a dignified life. Call it the Screen New Deal. (I’ll show myself out.)
As I previewed in last week’s newsletter, Gov. ANDY BESHEAR teed off on JD Vance in his native Butler County, OH, briefly shedding his aw shucks neighborism in favor of blistering attacks on the man he dubbed the “most arrogant politician I have ever seen.” He’s also been fan-dadding his son’s baseball prowess with videos seemingly filmed on the world’s first camera phone, which I find endearing.
RUBEN GALLEGO was in his element at a VoteVets town hall in San Antonio, where he continued to be Dems’ best messenger on Iran, arguing “the most patriotic thing you can do for veterans is not send us to stupid wars.” He’s much better in these more casual formats than in scripted stump speeches or stuffy TV hits. On his trip, Gallego spoke with the man recently dubbed “the most influential influencer in Democratic politics,” Carlos Eduardo Espina.
GALLEGO & CHRIS MURPHY participated in an event focused on corporate corruption in the Trump age hosted by anti-monopoly org AELP, where Gallego re-upped his searing criticism of Biden AG Merrick Garland, and Murphy lamented that Dems’ reliance on Barack Obama’s unique talent masked their lack of a coherent underlying narrative, and argued the party must run on unrigging the democracy and economy in 2026 and 2028.
RO KHANNA and Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) are introducing a bipartisan bill to probe potential fraud in all 50 states. Khanna continues to do interesting things, partnering with unlikely bedfellows and making cases that many Dems shy away from – like the notion that we must be responsible stewards of taxpayer dollars if we want to be entrusted to do big things. (I’m sure he’s also keen to highlight questionable spending by the many governors likely to be his primary foes in 2028, as he’s already done with GAVIN NEWSOM.
In his speech at the Gridiron Dinner in DC, suddenly-svelte JB PRITZKER quipped that he’s “the gov who put the ‘gov’ in Wegovy,” among other strong jokes (including nods to his obvious desire to run for president in 2028).
Two new polls from high-quality pollsters show PETE BUTTIGIEG effectively doubling up the rest of the field in NH, which I think is likely to hold the first primary in 2028. It seems insane to me that the aforementioned prediction markets give the 2020 IA caucus winner a ~3% chance at the nomination.
JOSH SHAPIRO had a must-watch appearance on Talk Easy with Sam Fragoso, who is truly one of the best interviewers around. Fragoso managed to pull out compelling moments of vulnerability and candor from Shapiro (and plenty of light-hearted ones), but also pushed him more pointedly than anyone I’ve seen on topics ranging from his reputation for being ruthlessly ambitious and his 2028 plans to his icy relationship with John Fetterman.
On Scott Galloway’s Prof G Pod, CORY BOOKER pushed back on criticism that his Keep Your Pay Act would cost trillions and disproportionately help the upper middle class, and previewed that the next big, digestible idea he plans to roll out will be a sweeping anti-corruption bill.
Highlights from the Big, Beautiful Tracker
RUBEN GALLEGO on The Long Game with Jake Sullivan & Jon Finer
GAVIN NEWSOM on The Axios Show
ANDY BESHEAR on The Conversation with Dasha Burns
GRETCHEN WHITMER on Track Star
GAVIN NEWSOM on On The Road with Jonathan Martin

