Nearly every Democrat auditioning for 2028 is portraying themself as a crusader against the failed status quo, many of them taking shots at the Democratic establishment. Just don’t ask them to get specific.
“I’m not trying to be a smartass here. I ask other Democratic governors the same question and they say, 'Of course I want to move on from 2024.' Then when I raise the nominee's name for 2024, all you guys get a little mousy on me," Politico’s Jonathan Martin said to Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO this week in a testy back-and-forth. Indeed, he’d had a similar exchange with WES MOORE the previous week.
It’s hardly surprising that top Dems don’t want to dunk on KAMALA HARRIS, a history-making VP who remains popular with the base, and with Black voters in particular. So let’s try an easier one, shall we?
“I would love to hear from the Democrats considering running for president in 2028 about whether or not they trust Ken Martin to run the primary process,” my friend / Run For Something founder Amanda Litman tweeted last week.
Surely, these bold reformers would race to join the chorus of voices calling for the ouster of the debt-ridden DNC Chair after his ignominious bungling of the 2024 autopsy. After all, the episode – which perfectly embodied many of the party’s worst afflictions that the autopsy failed to confront – seemed to unify the left & center of the Dem professional class. Easy, right?
Wrong.
CORY BOOKER perhaps came the closest, saying on CNN’s State of the Union, “The DNC has got to do a lot better if they're going to meet this moment in history,” and later, that “the Democratic Party desperately needs new leadership.” But he also portrayed Dems’ intraparty power struggles as a distraction, and rebuffed Jake Tapper’s repeated follow-ups on which leaders he was referring to.
JOSH SHAPIRO had pressured Martin to release the autopsy – a fact that notably made its way into many stories – but has not called for a change in leadership.
RO KHANNA & CHRIS VAN HOLLEN – two of the most outspoken Dem critics of the establishment & favorites of the left – each made clear they’re standing behind Ken.
To the best of my knowledge, every Dem 2028er strongly supports Hakeem Jeffries to be the next Speaker, including AOC, who helped him stave off a primary challenge.
Look, I get it. To a certain extent, I appreciate people being team players and pushing for unity in the run-up to critical midterms. And it’s quite risky to actually take direct aim at the party’s leaders; there’s a million reasons – both selfish and selfless – to resist antagonizing the powers that be.
But you can’t be an insurgent without confrontation. And if these guys won’t do it, the door will be wide open for someone who will. Just ask Donald Trump, or the 16 Republicans he laid waste to in the 2016 primary.
Addendums:
If you thought we were done reckoning with 2024, I present to you: Jill Biden saying she thought Joe Biden was having a stroke during the debate (before telling everyone he crushed it and anyone who doubted his capacity to win and serve 4 more years was disloyal).
On NKA, we talked to CNN’s Isaac Dovere about his autopsy scoop + where Dems go from here, and to MS NOW’s Ali Vitali — author of Electable: Why America Hasn't Put a Woman in the White House . . . Yet — about whether we’ll shatter the glass ceiling in 2028.
I told Semafor’s Dave Weigel that competitive primaries are good, actually. Sure, there’s a certain efficiency to Trump’s nomination-by-diktat model, but democracy is more my jam, messy as it may be.
Some Notable Polls
A new poll of likely Dem primary voters from (A-rated) Emerson College shows PETE BUTTIGIEG leading at 18%, followed by NEWSOM at 16%, AOC at 11%, SHAPIRO & HARRIS at 10%, and BESHEAR at 9%:
A separate poll from Overton Insights – a newer pollster, but one whose methodology appears to be solid – yielded quite similar results:
Finally, an interesting ranked-choice poll from FairVote & Lake Research Partners shows KAMALA narrowly prevailing over NEWSOM & BUTTIGIEG in the RCV simulation. Click through for insights on patterns from voters’ backup choices, overlap between candidates, etc.
Quick Hits
GRETCHEN WHITMER said she will not run for president in 2028 in an interview at Michigan’s annual Mackinac Policy Conference, making her the only Democrat in America who will not seek the nomination.
CHRIS MURPHY’s new book Crisis of the Common Good is out, and he’s been making the rounds, including appearances on The View, Good Morning America, Morning Joe, CNN, etc. & events nationwide. He also gave a commencement address at Wesleyan in which he urged the graduating class to reject the cult of efficiency – worth watching, IMHO!
Axios’s Alex Thompson & Holly Otterbein reported that Elizabeth Warren has met with GAVIN NEWSOM & ANDY BESHEAR as she seeks to shape the 2028 policy landscape and top Dems court her. JOSH SHAPIRO told JMart he’s been talking to her, too. And Axios also noted AOC’s work with Warren on universal child care – and in a separate piece, catalogued AOC’s recent uptick in activity nationwide (as I noted earlier this month). Speaking of which…
AOC delivered a sharp working class pitch at a rally for Sam Forstag (MT-01) in Missoula on Thursday, and launched the End Corruption Caucus with Reps. Jason Crow & Mike Levin. And her refusal to comment on former chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti – who is running to succeed Nancy Pelosi in CA-11 – was the subject of a new piece by NYT’s Kellen Browning.
RAHM EMANUEL proposed requiring universities to provide free tuition to families making less than $200k and to offer a path for students who enter with substantial college credits to earn a 4-year-degree in 3 years, among other higher ed reforms. He debuted the policy at a Dartmouth speaker series that has also included BUTTIGIEG, BESHEAR, & KHANNA.
RO KHANNA campaigned for progressives Adam Hamawy (NJ-12) and Tom Steyer (CA-Gov) ahead of their 6/2 primaries, will stump for Graham Platner (ME-Sen) at a GOTV rally next Friday, and is in SC to speak at the party convention & Clyburn fish fry this weekend.
KHANNA also brought CNBC’s Garrett Downs along on his recent ‘Heartland Tour’ and earned a nice profile on his ‘New Economic Patriotism’ vision and his 2028 ambitions.
GAVIN NEWSOM vowed he would levy a 100% tax on any payouts received by Californians from Trump’s new $1.8 billion slush fund.
JOSH SHAPIRO will sit down with MS NOW’s Jen Psaki at We the People: America 250 – A Country at a Crossroads on June 25.
JB PRITZKER is poised to sign into law the strongest AI safety regime in the country, which I suspect will age quite nicely as a pillar of his Illinois brag sheet.
CHRIS VAN HOLLEN penned a fiery NYT op-ed tearing into Democrats’ reflexive support for Israel and arguing the next president “should recognize a State of Palestine that is subject to clear benchmarks,” among other major Middle East policy recalibrations.
Semafor’s Max Tani has a must-read piece on the wild, wild west of paid influencers; it focuses on the hefty checks Tom Steyer’s been cutting in the CA-Gov race, but it’s a tip-of-the-iceberg kind of preview of 2028.
12 states vying to hold early primaries in 2028 pitched the DNC’s rules panel this week. Not a ton of major developments; the panel will reconvene 6/25 to continue deliberations & should finalize a calendar by August.
I maintain that the most likely order is NH (1/25) → NV (2/1) → SC (early-to-mid Feb.) → MI (2/22) → maaaybe GA (late Feb.)
Highlights from the Big, Beautiful Tracker
JOSH SHAPIRO on On the Road with Jonathan Martin
GAVIN NEWSOM on The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
CHRIS MURPHY on The Ink (Anand Giridharadas)
JB PRITZKER on American Conversations with Heather Cox Richardson
RAHM EMANUEL’s conversation at Dartmouth
JOSH SHAPIRO on Legal AF
