How do you navigate a moment that simultaneously demands politicians take extraordinary measures to capture attention and punishes those who seem contrived?

It’s a catch-22 plaguing Democrats as they confront an onslaught of assaults on the rule of law, by a president who singularly shapes global discourse, in an information ecosystem that rewards conflict and represses consensus.

Offer run-of-the-mill resistance and – best-case scenario – you’re irrelevant; worse-case, you become the latest paragon of the feckless opposition. But punch back like JB Pritzker or August 2025 Gavin Newsom, and you’re tagged as a craven opportunist, goading the Mad King into escalatory political warfare to boost your national profile.

This is what I’ve dubbed the Attention-Authenticity Paradox, and I think it will be a defining challenge of the 2028 primary.

How does one establish oneself as an enduring main character, without veering into the performative? Can any Democrat achieve REALevence?

(1) Authenticity. The premium on authenticity has never been higher. Voters have tremendous antipathy for anything that reeks of Washington; distrust of slick politicians and disgust with poll-tested Beltway-speak are off the charts.

And Democrats face a well-earned credibility gap with regular people (or Everyday Americans as we call them) after years of Ivy League-ification and, of course, the whole thing in 2024 where we forcefully defended Joe Biden’s vivacity for months, only to suddenly get coconut-pilled.

The few Dems viewed as authentic messengers – moderates like Ruben Gallego & Elissa Slotkin, but also progressives like AOC – have seen their stock skyrocket.

Anything that feels insincere – be it a cringy effort to ride a viral meme, a calculated pivot, or a too-clever swipe at a rival – will backfire. Even just seeming a little too thirsty for the presidency may prove fatal, especially if you don’t own it.

Which reminds me of a quote from decades-old profile of a precocious SF mayor with presidential star power… Asked about his ambition for higher office, a young Gavin Newsom deadpanned disinterest – before letting everyone know he was in on the joke:

(2) Attention Capital. Like it or not, attention is the new coin of the realm. And dozens of Dems will be vying for whatever modicum of it Trump does not consume, each complicating each other’s path.

When I talk about “attention capital” I’m actually talking about many different attributes at once – you can loosely think of them in 3 buckets:

• Reach: This takes into account the size of your audience, the fervor of your fan base (and haters), your cultural and political cachet, the influence and opportunity inherent to your current job, etc.
  
  

• Differentiation: In theory, there are many ways one can stand out from the field: biographically, substantively, stylistically, etc. In practice, when ~40 Dems are running – almost all of them offering a version of “orange man bad + bring down costs” and falling within the range of moderately progressive but mean to trans people  to quite progressive but still not a leftist – it’s gonna be tough.
  
  

• Aptitude: Regardless of your current reach and differentiation, do you have the intuition and disposition, the combativeness and the charisma, the spirit and the sizzle necessary to accumulate and leverage attention?

As I’ve gamed out the attentional dynamics, I’ve had to interrogate my priors.

For example, do I think people like Andy Beshear, Gretchen Whitmer, and Mark Kelly – all seen as serious contenders in Dem circles – are impressive leaders? Totally. Can I imagine any of them breaking through in a real and lasting way? Honestly, not really.

On the other hand, the fact that AOC would be a lightning rod for attacks from both Trump/Rs eager to elevate her and moderates who find her a useful foil is actually a huge advantage – particularly given her knack for turning defense into offense. Her and Newsom easily have the most attention capital in the presumed field.

Even telegenic supercommunicator Pete Buttigieg may find this terrain vexing. In 2020, he was a 37-year-old wunderkind in a sea of septuagenarians and the press was flocking; this time, he’ll be scrapping with the likes of Josh Shapiro & Wes Moore – and perhaps newer media darlings like James Talarico, the progressive pastor-to-be who wins culture wars with scripture.

2028 hopefuls will need to find creative ways to inject themselves into the plot, whether it’s by doing unique media and events, or by manufacturing purposeful conflict (bucking the party, picking fights with corporate villains, etc.) But again, doing this for 3 years without the act getting too act-y is a herculean task.

Finally, given the essentiality of both attention capital & authenticity, and the tension between them, the ground is fertile for high-profile outsiders who bring heterodox ideas and are unburdened by the Dem Party/politician baggage. Yes, Mark Cuban, but also many other deeper cuts – I plan to do a whole thing on this topic next month.

Quick hits

• Ruben Gallego lays more 2028 groundwork. On a brief trip to NH last weekend, Gallego managed to squeeze in Politics & Eggs (a speaker series of presidential lore); a town hall w/Rep. Goodlander; a fundraiser for Rep. Pappas; a sitdown with WMUR; a private dinner with NH kingmakers; powwows with Dem leaders in 3 separate cities; and a donut dropoff for union workers. This comes after being shepherded around the Iowa State Fair by the IDP chair, and intro’ed by the PA Dems’ chair at a Bucks County town hall; he also penned op-eds in the Des Moines Register and Philly Inquirer. These are simply not things you do unless you are – at the very least – strongly considering a presidential run.
  
  

  • To wit, in NH, he was asked if there’s a lesson that can be applied to politics from his memoir’s contention that in war, hesitation kills and it’s better to move than to freeze. GALLEGO responded, “You basically [captured] what my mentality is when it comes to life and decision-making... A lot of the times I’ve been very successful have been when I move faster than everybody else.”

• 2028ers are picking fights with Big Tech over kids. One thing Dems need to be better at is naming & fighting villains. I’m biased, but this seems like a smart one, and an interesting trend: ELISSA SLOTKIN called for banning cell phones in all K-12 schools. RUBEN GALLEGO led a bipartisan letter on Meta’s lack of safeguards around kids’ use of AI chatbots. RO KHANNA has been pressuring Roblox to crack down on child predators. CHRIS MURPHY gave a speech in Paris about the dangers of unregulated AI including the further isolation of our young people. And top tech critic AMY KLOBUCHAR has been on a media tour about the dangers of AI deepfakes.

  
  

• The coming crypto clashes. In 2024, the industry spent over $100M to boost friendly candidates, including GALLEGO & SLOTKIN. But they’re only two of many rising Dems who’ve been voting with crypto; while most Senate Ds opposed the GENIUS Act – the industry’s stablecoin bill – Gallego, Slotkin, Ossoff, Warnock, Schiff, Padilla, Kim, Alsobrooks, and Fetterman all voted for it, even after fights over Trump’s corruption nearly sank it. It may not just be the money; MARK CUBAN, for one, believes Dems’ opposition to crypto cost had repelled young men and cost them the election. It’s hard to say which forces are driving the generational split or how salient the issue actually is, but it may become a flashpoint in the coming months – especially after a new report for Semafor linked the big crypto PAC to AIPAC…
  
  

• DNC Updates. “The presidential calendar process starts today,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said at the RBC I’d previewed last week – though mostly, that meant teeing up a meeting for next month to consider a resolution formalizing the early state application process. But there’s been a deluge of new reporting around the Summer Meeting that just wrapped in Minneapolis: 
  
  

  • JMart had a great column on NH reclaiming its FITN status; fellow POLITICO-ers Elena Schneider & Lisa Kashinsky added a ton of new details on the early state scramble; while AP’s Steve Peoples zoomed in on SC and NBC’s Natasha Korecki on NV.
    
    

  • NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and CNN’s Isaac Dovere have twin pieces that paint a tough scene at the DNC, which is cash-poor and still spending millions paying down Harris campaign debts and Biden legal bills. Not great!
    
    

  • Axios’s Alex Thompson reports the DNC is considering a rare pre-midterm national convention that could become something of a cattle call for 2028 hopefuls.
    
    

  • Semafor’s Dave Weigel has a fun rundown of contentious DNC issues, concluding with a view I strongly share: spirited intraparty debates are normal and good, actually.

The month ahead

• 8/31 - 9/3 | Ro Khanna’s big week. Silicon Valley’s Congressman continues to be one of the nation’s most prolific and intriguing Democrats. This weekend, he’ll be in NH, holding multiple Labor Day events with Bernie Sanders in NH. And on Tuesday – as soon as Congress returns – he and Rep. Massie will host a presser with Epstein survivors, many of whom have never spoken out, as they rally support for their bipartisan effort to force a full House vote on releasing the files.
  
  

• 9/23 | Kamala’s reemergence. Harris’s memoir ‘107 Days’ is out next month, and she’ll be embarking on a book tour that includes stops in 16 major US cities. I, for one, am eager to hear what she has to say & whether she sounds 2028-curious, but I can’t imagine other top Dems are excited for a fresh cycle of rehashing 2024…
  
  

• 9/30 | Potential government shutdown. Government funding is set to expire at the end of the month. (You may recall the fury at Chuck Schumer over passing this 6-month CR in March.) The fight over how Dems should play it this time is already taking shape, and it may be electric. Keep an eye on 2028 hopefuls like CHRIS MURPHY (who’s been singly opposing bipartisan approps bills), GALLEGO, SLOTKIN, & BOOKER position themselves. Will they embrace the new Newsonian rules of engagement?

If you made it all the way down here – thank you! And don’t forget to check out all the latest travel and media appearances in the Big, Beautiful 2028 tracker.