The year o' Shapiro

Of the top-tier 2028 contenders, there’s nobody who stands to gain or lose more in 2026 as the man they call Baruch Obama – PA Gov. Josh Shapiro. 

Shapiro officially kicked off his well-financed reelection bid last week, and the “get sh*t done”-heavy launch video doubles as a preview of his 2028 pitch – and I gotta say, it’s a strong pitch!

His memoir also comes out this month, and he’ll hold book tour events in NYC, Boston, & DC – three cities which are, famously, not in Pennsylvania.

Beyond his own high-stakes reelection, Shapiro has overhauled the formerly inept state party with an eye toward winning unified control of the now-divided legislature – which would allow him to enact flagship Dem priorities next year – and he’s positioned PA as the fulcrum in the existential fight for control of the House, flexing his muscle in key frontline-district primaries. 

It’s a savvy play by a savvy pol, who’d surely emerge a 2028 frontrunner. And given his own sky-high approval – and Trump’s singular talent for turning out Dem voters – these bets seem likely to hit. But don’t expect Shapiro to come out entirely unscathed.

He won’t be blessed with a rematch against his wackadoodle 2022 foe; Mastriano cleared the way for Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who ran ahead of Trump in 2024. With the eager backing of national Rs, Garrity will wage an aggressive campaign against him – one that will include Twilight Justice, an ominous ‘streaming series’ about Bad Josh, or something. (A smash hit, no doubt.)

But I suspect overwrought video projects won’t be the primary pain point in Shapiro’s master plan. Rather, it’ll be the master plan itself. 

Since August, Garrity has been blasting his national ambitions; “We need somebody that is more interested in Pennsylvania [than] Pennsylvania Avenue,” she says. And while there’s a long history of ambitious leaders professing their disinterest in the Oval Office only to reverse course and pay little price, I think this dynamic will prove uniquely challenging for Shapiro to navigate.

With populist rage simmering and authenticity at a premium, trust will be hard to come by for smooth-talking career politicians who seem like they’ve been drawing pictures of themselves as president since preschool. And in an attention economy that demands candidates be omnipresent media subjects, the 2028 question will be asked of Shapiro a million times in a million ways – and there’s just no good answer.

If you commit to serving the full 4 years, only to launch a presidential campaign a few months into your term – and that would really be the timeline – you’ve shredded your own credibility & character. If you admit you’re considering a 2028 bid, it’s an insult to even ask PA voters for the job. So, all you can do is play coy, right?

Right, but I don’t think people have reckoned with how tiresome that act may get over 10 straight months of dancing – especially when everyone believes you’re running, and you seem to be actively laying the national groundwork.

Shapiro isn’t alone in this conundrum; it will vex JB Pritzker (who’s been hedging) & Wes Moore (who swears he’s not running) too. But the plainspoken Pritzker & outsider Moore have a bit more inoculation – and in royal blue states, their reelection bids simply won’t be subject to the same pressures & national scrutiny.

I still think Shapiro will have a strong year & a real shot to be the 2028 nominee; he’s very, very good – maybe the best political athlete in the party – and he has a more coherent narrative than many of his contemporaries. But his dual-track job audition carries under-appreciated risks.

For the past few years, “abolish ICE” has been treated as a slogan that belonged in the same ash heap of woke-tivism as “defund the police” – an unwanted relic of an era that Dems collectively agreed to pretend never happened.

And after Trump rode the Biden Border Backlash all the way to an encore presidency, certainly, the momentum was all toward stronger enforcement. But in recent months – powered by his egregious overreach and a litany of crimes against humanity and such – immigration politics have been swinging back hard.

For a full look at ICE’s public image freefall, you gotta read Peter Hamby’s latest.

Per Civiqs’ daily tracking poll, net support for abolishing ICE has surged by 40 points (from –47 to –7) since Sept. 2024. A new, even rosier YouGov/Economist poll shows plurality support, 46%-43%.

The killing of Renee Good turbocharged this political avalanche, and many 2028ers – including border hawkish Dems – are ratcheting up their rebukes of Trump’s DHS, edging closer to saying that ICE is irreparably broken. This week:

I haven’t heard any 2028er explicitly call for abolishing ICE – save AOC, who never stopped selling ‘Abolish ICE’ hats, which you kinda have to respect – but we’re headed in that direction. And the politics of that are… fine, actually. Getting better every day. 

Finally, here’s your point guard & captain of the 1990-1991 tri-county champion Akiba Hebrew Academy Cougars, Josh Shapiro… and the actual game tape!