Last week, I wrote about the underrated success of outsiders in recent primaries, and the structural dynamics that will further advantage them in 2028:

This week, I’m getting into my top 2028 outsiders.

These rankings represent an evaluation the overall plausibility of each person winning the nomination, weighing factors like: likelihood to run, reach, attention capital, differentiation, charisma, wealth, political athleticism, alignment with the moment, and appeal to actual Dem constituencies.

So without further ado…

The decorated US Soccer star – winner of two World Cups, an Olympic gold, and a Presidential Medal of Freedom – has earned countless fans for her fierceness both on and off the pitch. An outspoken activist for racial justice, gender equality, and LGBTQ rights – and an accidental but undaunted Trump target many times over – Rapinoe exudes charisma and moral clarity that most politicians would kill for. 

Now, she’s building a burgeoning media empire in the fast-growing world of women’s sports with longtime fiancé Sue Bird, further expanding her reach and cultural capital. It’s obviously a long-shot that she’d seriously consider a presidential bid. But her platform, fan base, eloquence, and credibility as messenger – particularly at such an inflection point for trans people and the broader LGBTQ community – make her a legitimately intriguing prospect.

“In the words of the great American poet, Nelly, ‘It’s getting hot in here,’” Shawn Fain declared halfway through his primetime 2024 DNC speech, ripping off his blazer to reveal his TRUMP IS A SCAB shirt. 

This is a real thing that happened, and one that encapsulates Fain – the message; the bravado; the not knowing whether you hate him or love him. 

Fain’s speech and the one by AOC that followed were among the most effective of the convention, each aimed squarely at working people; each painting the billionaire class and corporate greed as the villains, and Trump as their lapdog.

Fain’s brashness and pugilism have yielded historic wins from auto giants and hero status with many workers. It’s also yielded missteps and enemies, some of whom are now working to oust him. Still, in a party desperate for working class brawlers, Fain fits the bill; he has the ambition and audacity to run, and some on the populist left have been clamoring for it.

After long maintaining a tight-lipped and apolitical public image, these days, Melinda French Gates has a lot to say, and do. 

She’s opened up in a personal memoir & many media hits, made her first political endorsement, and leaned into efforts accelerate social progress via her firm. In announcing her 2024 departure from the Gates Foundation, she noted the agreement gave her an extra $12.5 billion to commit to her work on behalf of women & families, solidifying her standing as one of the world’s most influential change agents.

There are, of course, many reasons she’d likely be reluctant to subject herself and her family to presidential scrutiny. And the anti-elite zeitgeist doesn’t exactly lend itself to a moderate-pilled global financier named Gates…

But she’s a powerhouse with unique relationships and fluency across the tech, business, and philanthropic sectors; an ideal foil for Trump’s unprecedented attacks on civil society and public health; a policy leader on salient issues like expanding childcare. And in this new, more accessible chapter, she’s proven a charismatic communicator. (Not gonna lie: I think her post-divorce DGAF energy would really play.)

One of her flagship efforts is to grow women’s political power; why not cut out the middleman and shoot for the stars!

The pugnacious ESPN pontificator has increasingly veered into politics, unleashing viral tirades about Dems’ fecklessness and futility that have a cathartic resonance. He’s hosted potential 2028ers Moore, Shapiro, Booker & Khanna on his podcast, with more to come on SiriusXM.

Smith has artfully manifested and downplayed his own presidential buzz in the same breath, insisting the fact that his name is in the mix (was it?) tells you all you need to know about Dems’ sorry state of affairs; he has no choice but to consider it! His media mastery, electric energy, unfiltered delivery, and dogged fight make him stand out in a party grasping for each. 

And yet for all his assets, his appeal may be shallower than it seems; it’s hard to see the populist wing of the Dem base rallying behind a megamillionaire pundit who pairs Trumpian bluster with staunch fiscal conservatism. Indeed, professional Republicans seem his biggest boosters.

Ultimately, I suspect Stephen A. is using a prospective presidential bid to boost his cultural clout rather than the other way around. But that’s what I thought about Trump!

It’s a strange thing to say about a mild-mannered centrist & Levi Strauss heir, but I think of San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie as a mirror image of leftist firebrand Zohran Mamdani – and Dems could learn a lot from their commonalities.

Both outsiders ran aggressively against a failed, corrupt status quo – yet each as joyful warriors, hype-men for their cities, purveyors of hope. Both make a point to walk every neighborhood, seeing & hearing what’s weighing heaviest on folks. And rather than centering themselves, both focus relentlessly on three priorities to improve those people’s lives.

Asked recently to define himself, the much-caricatured Mamdani replied, “Zohran Mamdani is a man who wants to freeze the rent, make buses fast & free, and deliver universal childcare.” Lurie’s north stars are improving public safety, tackling homelessness & addiction, and revitalizing San Francisco’s economy. Less meme-able! But when you constantly hammer it, it has similar impact.

For a political neophyte in a notoriously unforgiving job, he’s had a remarkable first year, earning 73% approval. He’s been an omnipresent engine of action & SF-boosterism, willing a vibe shift into being; imploring CEOs to invest in the resurgent city. (The AI boom hasn’t hurt!)

Still, Lurie is the first to admit the clean streets & booming downtown he envisions are a ways away. For all the hype, it’s that humility that’s been his superpower, winning over unexpected allies even as navigates treacherous issues.

Expect Lurie to get a lot more 2028 buzz in the months ahead. But I’ll offer 3 big flags:

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