Washington politicians have not been popular of late. You do an endless war here, a Wall Street bailout there, and people start turning on you – it’s a tough biz.
Running as an outsider has thus proven quite effective. You may recall that in 2016, in Republicans’ last real presidential primary, a reality TV star steamrolled a bunch of top GOP politicians. He is, famously, still president.
A thing that feels weirdly under-appreciated, though, is that in Democrats’ last real primary – in a field featuring 7 US Senators, 4 governors & a VP – it was a 38-year-old gay mayor of South Bend who won the Iowa caucus.
In the one before that, a curmudgeonly iconoclast from Vermont nearly shocked the establishment. And in the one before that, Barack Obama – just 4 years removed from being a state senator – carried his promise of historic change to the White House.
Lessons for 2028…
Traditional qualifications are maybe bad now. At the very least, Pete’s rise from obscurity to near-nominee should disabuse us of the notion that one must be a governor, congressperson, or cabinet member – like each of the top 10 Dems in 2028 betting markets – to become a serious contender. Given the current zeitgeist, such accolades may be a net negative.
Unmissable outsideriness plays. Trump’s single greatest asset is (still) that he’s not seen as a politician; he constantly hits you over the head with imagery & branding that reinforce that persona. Similarly, no one who caught a glimpse of 2008 Obama or 2016 Bernie could miss the change they were selling. And in 2020, running against a coterie of geriatric swamp creatures, Pete thrived as the fresh-faced Midwest millennial (slogan: Win The Era).
Bucking your party works from many angles. We often assume the main way to take on one’s own party is to outflank it from one side. But Trump ran right on immigration, left on entitlements, & torched the GOP on Iraq. Obama’s policy platform was similar to Hillary’s, but he ran as a referendum on the status quo. Pete leaned into generational change with big structural reforms: “We can’t just polish off a system so broken,” he said in a 2019 launch video. There are many ways to spurn the establishment; in a historically unpopular party, you must do it convincingly. Frankly, not taking swipes at Joe Biden & Chuck Schumer right now is political malfeasance.
Medium as message. Obama ran the first-ever digital campaign in 2008. Trump reinvented it with a dark mastery of Twitter in 2016. And Pete (with hard-charging adviser Lis Smith) really pioneered the Everything, Everywhere, All At Once media strategy in 2020. Each candidate understood how to leverage the evolving ecosystem to shape discourse & speak directly to voters – and in skirting bygone norms & gatekeepers, burnished their outsider credentials.
Talking normal. A Danish professor recently analyzed 1.5 million snippets of parliamentary speeches. (Stick with me!) He found that politicians begin using more complex language after entering government; their rhetorical simplicity returns when they leave office; and voters prefer plainspoken politicians. In different ways, Obama, Bernie, Pete, & Trump all excel at communicating accessibly, which is central to their appeal.
These trends are only intensifying. Antipathy for the Democratic Party & the status quo have surged. The media is further atomizing; the old gatekeepers, losing clout; the lines between culture & politics, fading –– all as the paradoxical demands for attention-capture & authenticity reach new heights.
For all the focus on impressive governors & senators, maybe you’d rather be a celebrity or a CEO in 2028. Or even a seminarian or an oysterman…
Should these outsider Senate candidates just run for president?
In an interview with podcaster Brian Tyler Cohen this week, GRAHAM PLATNER – a 40-year-old Maine oysterman and populist Senate candidate – offered the clearest distillation I’ve heard of how Dems lost working people to Trump:
“Everybody knows that they’re living in a [system] that is built to screw them. At least [Trump] told people that was true. And when you tell people that a thing they know in their bones is true is true, they’re willing to forgive a lot of other stuff...
[We must] speak to that angst with real solutions that are based in [that reality]. When you focus group, and poll test…trying to come up with solutions that will not offend or bother anyone, you wind up with solutions that won’t fix anything.”
It’s worth watching the full interview, and really anything Platner does. Sometimes I forget how bad the epidemic of equivocation & jargon that’s poisoned our political class is until I hear a guy like Platner dispense with that lexicon entirely. (For more on all the Senate-seeking populists, check out this great rundown from Kyle Tharp.)
Two other outsider Senate hopefuls who are A+ communicators also made waves this week tearing into the rigged system: 36yo seminarian JAMES TALARICO (TX) with his compelling launch video, and 39yo MALLORY MCMORROW (MI) with her viral ad about corporate greed ruining everything.
You deserve a break on Sundays that doesn’t break the bank.
— #Mallory McMorrow (#@MalloryMcMorrow)
12:52 PM • Sep 7, 2025
Platner, Talarico, and McMorrow are all becoming national stars. Yet, each faces an uphill primary, followed by a tough general if they prevail.
It’s counterintuitive to suggest Senate underdogs should run for even higher office, but there’s a unique opening… and an outsider run against a crowd of 30+ insiders creates different dynamics than a 2- or 3-way race… and it’s better career-wise to fall short in a longshot presidential bid than a Senate race… food for thought!
Stay tuned for Part 2, where I’ll give you my Top Ten 2028 Outsiders not running for Senate, and dissect what each brings to the table.
Quick hits
Slotkin’s NatSec vision centers middle class. Former CIA analyst ELISSA SLOTKIN gave an interesting national security speech this week informed by regular Michiganders, outlining a vision that prioritizes economic security & growing the middle class. She also had novel proposals on the AI race, supply chains, crypto, a sovereign wealth bank, & more. (Key excerpts.)
Is Wes Moore boxing himself in? Hyper-talented Maryland Gov. WES MOORE quadrupled down on his insistence that he has no presidential ambitions as he launched his reelection Tuesday, vowing to serve the full term. He’s hardly the first pol to do this dance, but few have made such frequent & forceful public denials while also publicly laying such extensive groundwork…
BIG, BEAUTIFUL TRACKER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:
Travel… RUBEN GALLEGO has a town hall with the NV Dems’ Chair in Vegas this weekend… MARK KELLY was in Vegas last weekend, after a series of Labor Day events across North Carolina… RO KHANNA keynoted an SWVA Dems event in rural Virginia on Saturday & will speak at ArabCon in Dearborn, Michigan later this month.
Media… JB PRITZKER on The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart and NPR’s Morning Edition… RO KHANNA on I’ve Had It, and talking Palestinian statehood at the Council on Foreign Relations… WES MOORE and CORY BOOKER on Meet The Press.
Thanks so much for reading -– if you’re finding the newsletter worthwhile, please consider sharing it with others in your network!
