On Friday – after months of behind-the-scenes maneuvering gave way to some eleventh-hour fireworks – the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee (RBC) unveiled its 2028 early primary calendar, which is expected to be ratified by the full DNC at their Aug. 13-15 meeting in Austin:
By this point, there has been plenty of excellent reporting about what went down, so rather than rehashing that, I wanted to emphasize a few points that seem to be getting lost, and then share my way-too-deep-dive analysis on winners & losers.
First, here’s a snapshot of the primary electorates in the new early lineup, which I aggregated from 2016 & 2020 exit polls. You can see how much more diverse it is than the old IA/NH kickoff – and how different each state is from the next:
Three big points that seem to be getting lost:
Competing just got way more expensive. The total population of the new 6-state early slate (~31M) is 2.3x that of the old lineup (~13M). SC has almost 1M more people than IA & NH combined and 7 media markets, so retail politicking your way to relevance will be much harder. MI & VA are by far the two biggest, most expensive early states ever. It may take $200M just to compete in all 6 states (and/or a high-powered super PAC). Tough scene for the little guys.
The order will substantively reshape the entire primary. This is the reason I’ve been covering this since my inaugural post in Aug. 2025. Starting with an open primary in SC – an older, moderate, majority-Black electorate – will lead candidates to adopt far different policies & rhetoric than a closed IA caucus dominated by liberal white activists. (This is what the left should be fretting; not whether a progressive can win; they can.)
The NH shitshow has not been resolved. The RBC moved NH to 3rd, but NH state law requires it go first. That law won’t change. So the RBC granted NH an amended waiver to hold a party-run primary. Basically, NH would hold its state-run primary in Jan., but delegates won’t be awarded any Dem who competes would face steep punishment; then, NH Dems would hold the approved party-run primary on Feb. 8… Many problems remain, including:
The NHDP problem. NH Dems have been defiant. Chair Ray Buckley is under fire, and faces reelection in March. The RBC waiver requires they submit a plan for their party-run primary by Sept. 15, or the waiver is rescinded. They could maybe get an extension if they commit to the RBC’s deal, but it’s unclear how Buckley will play this; he just told WMUR they have 18 months to figure it out. (Mostly false!)
The two-primary mess. If this plan does go forward, top candidates will not file to be on the Jan. primary ballot – but they’ll still campaign heavily in NH for the Feb. 8 party-run primary. And there will be a real incentive for supporters to organize write-in efforts for the Jan. contest, as media will still cover it as an indicator of momentum. You can’t really punish candidates for things vols do on their own accord, but prepare for lots of stealth tactics, hard decisions, & accusations of foul play.
The GOP threat. Rs have a trifecta in NH, and in response to this plan, the House Deputy Majority Leader has drafted legislation that would bar “from the general election ballot the Presidential nominees of any party that does not recognize and promote our FITN Primary.” That’s the nuclear option, but plenty of others are being floated, too.
Winners
📈 KAMALA HARRIS.
The biggest winner of the new lineup is also the most obvious one, so I won’t belabor the point too much. The traditional IA/NH-first lineup would’ve been extremely tough for Kamala, and distant finishes to start the year would’ve done more harm to her, as the de facto frontrunner, than any other candidate.
South Carolina, on the other hand, should easily be her best early state. In way-too-early polling, Harris has a commanding lead with Black voters, who will make up ~60% of the SC electorate. And a slew of electric, sold-out events across the South over the past year have underscored the breadth & intensity of that support.
SC will be followed by NV, a neighboring state where she has longstanding ties. With NH marginalized & IA replaced by three more-diverse states in MI, NM, & VA, the new order is a coup for Harris – the kind that might persuade her to run.
Still, it is not without risks. If the party’s most recent VP & nominee were to lose the first primary on her most favorable terrain, it would effectively end her candidacy.
📈 ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ.
The conventional wisdom seems to be that this calendar is a blow to AOC, in large part because NH – a 2x Bernie state – got demoted, while moderate SC won the 1-slot over NV, where Latinos & unionized service workers have outsized political power. I disagree.
For starters, I think it’s a mistake to assume NH is a home run for AOC. Bernie was effectively a native son there, and his huge win in 2016 was powered by two demos AOC may struggle with. Sanders won non-college whites (37% of primary voters) by 38 points, and independents (40% of primary voters) by 48 points, compared to just a 4-point edge among Dems. He carried both groups again in 2020 en route to a far narrower win over a far more crowded field.
Again, this is not to say AOC can’t win NH (she led the latest poll); I just don’t view it as being a standout state for her – so no harm done by its relegation. I also think she’ll do fine in SC, potentially improving on Bernie’s ceiling in the South.
In fact, I don’t really view any states as uniquely winnable or unwinnable for her. Which gets at why the new calendar is so advantageous for her. As I’ve written previously:
30+ Dems will run for president in 2028, and the early frontrunners [are] stacked up in an overcrowded moderate white guy lane: GAVIN NEWSOM, JOSH SHAPIRO, PETE BUTTIGIEG, MARK KELLY, ANDY BESHEAR, etc… I call them The Steves. Sure, none of them are actually named Steve, but they all seem like they should be.
KAMALA…is no heir to the Bernie movement. Nor are WES MOORE or ELISSA SLOTKIN or RUBEN GALLEGO or CORY BOOKER… if [AOC] could consolidate support from the left, winning even 25-30% of the base as The Steves+ split the rest of the electorate 1000 ways, that may be enough to capture the nomination.
Bernie was on track to win the nomination this way in 2020 until Biden crushed SC and both Pete & Klobuchar dropped out to consolidate support before Super Tuesday. The establishment is weaker now, and less hostile to AOC than her mentor. And the new calendar – with SC followed by a series of disparate electorates – will give everyone (who can afford it) a reason to hang on longer.
Of course, affording it will be much harder this time. And AOC has built a grassroots fundraising juggernaut and a well-organized national fan base – one that gives her a long runway & a high floor everywhere. No other candidate is similarly situated.
📈 GAVIN NEWSOM.
Another one that may be counterintuitive, given that Gov. Gav has little electoral history with Black voters – indeed, he named his kids Brooklyn, Montana, Hunter, & Dutch, which is the whitest shit I’ve ever heard – and would’ve likely preferred NV go before SC.
But I think Newsom will be far more comfortable in SC than other key rivals in his lane. Frankly, he is comfortable working almost any room. He also earned some cred as the tip of the spear against Trump’s map-rigging, and is the only Dem besides Harris who consistently polls in double-digits with Black voters. With any half-decent showing in SC, and 2 of the next 3 in Latino-heavy Western states, he’d be in great shape.
More broadly, Gavin’s brand – the slick-talking salesman with Hollywood-good hair & charisma – has always struck me as one that’s better suited to the Sun Belt than the Frost Belt. In the new lineup, both the Midwest & Northeast lose influence, as NH falls to 3rd & IA gets the boot, while the South (VA) & West (NM) each add a second early state that should be Gavin-friendly.
Finally, unless his campaign is in shambles, Newsom should raise plenty of money to compete in all six early states, while others will run dry.
📈 WES MOORE.
This calendar is about as favorable for Wes Moore as he could’ve hoped. It starts with SC, whose primary electorate is not only heavily Black, but also (relatedly) relatively moderate and electability-conscious. SC also has one of the nation’s largest concentrations of veterans and military families, and Moore would be one of just a few combat vets in the race.
Just as important, though, is Virginia's surprise inclusion in the early lineup – a state that shares all of those characteristics, and also happens to share its largest media market with Moore’s Maryland. In 2020, 28% of VA primary voters were Black and another 36% were white college grads – both demos that should be kind to Moore.
Moore stumped for Gov. Spanberger in 2025, and will surely hit the trail for 3 Dems hoping to flip GOP-held House seats in VA this November. And he’s already made two trips to SC coordinated by the state party, keynoting their Blue Palmetto Dinner last year, and making a multi-stop tour earlier this month. SC could trip up rivals like BUTTIGIEG & SHAPIRO, creating an opening for him to gain traction.
Meanwhile, NH’s influence dwindles, and the Midwest swaps out lily-white IA for a more diverse MI. Squint, and you can start to see a path…
📈 RAPHAEL WARNOCK.
I've been saying for months that Warnock’s 2028 stock is criminally undervalued, but I suspect now that the nomination runs squarely through the South, this bandwagon will get more crowded.
As we look toward SC, Warnock isn’t just a talented Black Senator from a neighboring state; he’s the Senior Pastor of Atlanta’s historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, the former pulpit of MLK Jr. This has afforded him exposure both beyond state lines and above politics. And when you listen to him preach, it’s obvious he has unique potential to expand that support throughout the South.
He also has the differentiation needed to capture attention without making a scene. And unlike Georgia’s other much-ballyhooed Senator, Warnock seems very likely to run. In a book released last month, he laid out his vision for the country, interlaced with his remarkable bio and pertinent scripture – very pre-presidential.
He’ll be particularly well-positioned under the new calendar if Kamala opts not to run, which still seems 50/50 to me, but I think he’ll be formidable regardless. As Trump’s crassness embitters voters, the Rev may be the perfect remedy; it wouldn’t be the first time the nation turned to Georgia for an ethical palette-cleanser to a corrupt president.
📈 JB PRITZKER.
It’s a very mixed bag for Pritzker, whose natural strengths may be in the Midwest and Northeast, the two regions that suffered the biggest setbacks. NH falls back, IA falls out, and IL’s bid to join the early slate falls short.
And yet, I still consider the new six-state early slate a net win for Pritzker. Why? Well, it is going to be a war of attrition fought on many distinct terrains all at once. JB is both one of the few candidates who can appeal to left & center alike across racial & socioeconomic demographics, and – importantly – he has more money than God.
He will be able to invest heavily in not only all six early states, but also the full Super Tuesday slate. Being a well-rounded billionaire in a too-crowded primary is a pretty good position to be in!
📈 MITCH LANDRIEU.
If there's one true dark horse who should be thrilled with this calendar, it is former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu.
As I've written before, Landrieu is a world-class political athlete, standing alone among the party’s 2028 hopefuls in his ability to connect with both Black voters and working class whites. His leadership of post-Katrina New Orleans – and his rousing speech about removing the city’s confederate monuments – offers a veritable blueprint for how to heal post-Trump America.
The SC primary is tailor-made for Mitch. The electorate is 55-60% Black & 35-40% white, with few Latinos – nearly identical to NOLA’s electorate – and is older, more moderate, & much more pro-Biden than other early states. That last point is critical, as Landrieu’s biggest liability is his closeness to the former president, having served as Biden’s infrastructure czar and co-chair of his aborted 2024 campaign. In SC, that may be more asset than burden.
Oh, and he’s filming a new Crooked Media docuseries about winning the South with former WH Comms Director Jennifer Palmieri and NABJ President / The 19th Editor-At-Large Errin Haines. When they wrap, he may just want to extend his stay in SC for 18 months and see what happens.
📈 OTHER WINNERS.
Representative democracy. t was objectively insane that two nearly-all-white states had a stranglehold over the Democratic nominating process for the past five decades. The new calendar is much more reflective of the national / swing state electorates.
Super PACs. With the heightened financial barriers to entry (and 100 Dems preparing to run), a handful of megadonors could make a presidential bid viable where others will be unable to properly compete.
South Carolina Dems. SC has always seemed like it should be closer to a swing state. Obama lost it by single-digits in 2028. Going first means huge investments in building infrastructure & party brand in the state. This dynamic helped make IA a battleground when, on paper, maybe shouldn’t have been; hopefully SC is next.
The dream of a contested convention. With this lineup, candidates will likely split the early states, and many will want to stay in through MI/VA. If 3 or more viable ones head to Super Tuesday – say, a candidate winning the Black vote, a moderate white guy, and a progressive – it’s quite possible nobody wins a majority of delegates and we resort to high-drama horsetrading among party insiders to select a nominee. The quadrennial pipedream of political nerds & chaos-lovers has never been more alive!
Reporters who get to spend winter in Charleston over Cedar Rapids. A huge win for the heroic 2028 embeds.
Losers
📉 PETE BUTTIGIEG.
No, the new calendar is not a death knell for Pete’s 2028 presidential prospects.
Buttigieg has been putting in serious work to build deeper relationships with Black leaders and communities since that weakness effectively doomed his 2020 bid. I expect the work to pay some dividends. Moreover, with SC having open primaries & Dems holding theirs before Rs, he can likely pull in a bunch of independent voters. But he needn’t win SC to remain viable.
If Pete were to finish, say, 3rd or 4th in SC; 2nd or 3rd in NV; and win NH, he’d be in great shape. Both MI – his home since 2022 – and VA, with its highly-educated suburbanites, should be excellent states for him.
Still, we must acknowledge what Pete lost with the new calendar. In 2020, he won IA – which was fighting to stay in the early slate – and finished a close 2nd in NH, which seemed poised to reclaim its FITN status until the 11th hour. Instead of beginning 2028 in two small, white states where he remains tremendously popular, he’ll have to compete in a diverse hexathlon.
📉 JOSH SHAPIRO.
Shapiro is in a similar boat as BUTTIGIEG here – a strong candidate who will suffer from the new lineup’s relative marginalization of the Northeast and Midwest, and whose viability will depend on making significant inroads with nonwhite voters.
The early-state schedule is not the only calendar that is working against him. Unlike Pete – who has near-universal name ID and will have been in national campaign mode for 3 years – Shapiro is not yet a household name, and can’t really skip town to build his out-of-state profile amid a semi-competitive reelection bid.
And making that pivot right after winning a new term would be a tough look, too – especially if your whole pitch is getting shit done for your constituents. It’s a conundrum for Shapiro, who doesn’t need to win SC, but probably can’t afford to finish behind multiple other moderates.
Ultimately, differentiation within his lane may hinge on a willingness to punch harder at the left. He’s always made public safety central to his pitch; you can imagine him railing against the abolish-ICE/defund-the-police wing of the party and winning fans in SC/VA & NM, a border state.
📉 RAHM EMANUEL.
Much like Pete, Rahm Emanuel probably would've preferred a calendar built around IA and NH – though not necessarily because of the makeup of their electorates.
The bigger blow the IA/NH demise deals to Rahm is the devaluation of retail politics. He’s spent much of the past year trying to win over voters one-by-one (in between copious media hits and policy rollouts), and with practice, has gotten noticeably better at it. Many of those reps were taken in IA & NH, where handshaking is still king, and anybody can get a fair hearing.
With the smallest states wiped from the front of the calendar, and the early window loaded up with two more expensive contests, it will be harder for long-shot candidates to gain traction. Rahm isn’t exactly the cash-poor outsider that description evokes, but he’ll be a prime victim.
📉 CHRIS MURPHY, ELISSA SLOTKIN.
See above. Much like Rahm, Senators Murphy & Slotkin have both impressed me in town hall and retail politics settings. Each of them has a real knack for connecting with voters on the ground, and can appeal to voters who are angry at Democratic leadership & failed status quo, but not necessarily in the DSA wing of the party. The new calendar makes the door-to-door-to-nomination pipeline much harder, curbs the influence of their home regions, and disadvantages candidates with less money and name ID.
📉 OTHER LOSERS
The middle of the country. IA, which was vying to reenter the early slate, barely entered the chat. No Midwest state in the first four. (MI goes 5th.) Dems still need to figure out how to appeal to the middle of the country, but this map deprioritizes it.
The DSA. Again, the new calendar doesn’t preclude a progressive nominee – there will still be plenty of efforts to out-lib the competition in this primary – but it is a setback for the DSA agenda and their (disproportionately white) base.
Ray Buckley. The longtime NHDP Chair actually deserves some credit for not going nuclear once he realized his fellow RBC members were done with the NH’s FITN primary tyranny. But he’s in a real pickle now.
IA & NH voters who expect to share intimate meals with every politician ever. Sorry pals, your time is (mostly) up. It was a good run.
Okay, that’s more than enough for today – no Quick Hits or Big, Beautiful Tracker highlights. Will be back in your inbox next week with regular programming.
